Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people.
Review: At Fall for Dance, Resilience Takes Center Stage And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. But thats not the picture I look at. What you need to know, summarized in one email. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Jim Hoft. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times.
List of election bellwether counties in the United States Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. And it can happen.. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. Here's why. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). He says hell vote for Trump. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. She thinks economic distress from COVID-19 will fuel more unrest.
Florida's I-4 corridor: Where presidents get picked This includes personalizing content and advertising. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. For decades, the bellwethers were a host of fairly conservative but traditionally Democratic rural counties. At least Biden is honest, he said. Youre not getting anybody perfect. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Those who believe that Donald Trump won the 2020 presidential election have held up his victories in many bellwether counties as evidence of electoral fraud. Two states have announced recounts. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump.
The Epoch Times - YouTube Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. If you own a business and you have a bad summer where it rains every weekend, youre out of luck.. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Comparing the most recent elections (2000-2020) to those in earlier periods (1960-1980), we find a striking decline in the proportion of bellwether counties, i.e., those with correct prediction in past elections.
Fact check: Joe Biden won most votes ever and fewest counties - USA TODAY Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. Im not happy with the way things are now. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. Please read our comments policy before commenting. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Rural white America is principally Trump, and they are ripe for conspiracy theories. SACRAMENTO . Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. On . bellwether. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Those are the biggest issuesthe economy and national security. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience.
There Are No Bellwether Counties | HuffPost Latest News As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average.
Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 That streak, which extended back to when the county supported Harry Truman became president ended in the 2020 Presidential Election when the Donald Trump won the county. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . What happened to our Democratic Party? She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000.
16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump - Stillness in the Storm Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. I think a lot of us are fighting against socialism. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect.
Donald Trump Won Record 16 Bellwether Counties - Swarajyamag Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT.
What a Bellwether County Is Saying About 2020 Election - The Epoch Times January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Teresa Shepherd, a middle-aged woman living in Riley, just southeast of Terre Haute, has never cared much about voting. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Westmoreland is the only one of the counties in the South, Clallam is the only one on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here.
The candidate who curiously outperformed the bellwether counties? Trump Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms I believe in a time cycle. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Were a service industry-oriented area. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said.
Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. TERRE HAUTE, Ind.For well over a century, voters in Vigo County, Indiana, have backed the winner in almost every presidential election. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Our roads need to be fixed. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire.
Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election March 1, 2022 Updated: March 3, 2022 Print It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. We shouldnt be fighting among each other here. I would never vote any other way.
MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. We can place an order and immediately get an email back of what they dont have. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together.
Fact check: What's true about the 2020 election, vote counting The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. They need to take care of the older people here. Part of his route is driving up to Detroit and Flint, Michigan, every day. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations.